Disruptions in the petroleum markets during the second quarter of 2026 have led to significant changes that small business owners in various industries should consider. The ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for crude oil, has prompted fluctuations in prices, shifting production dynamics, and rising export opportunities for U.S. refineries.
Brent crude oil prices plummeted amid the turmoil, reaching highs of $118 per barrel and lows of $72 per barrel throughout the quarter. This volatility was primarily driven by international supply disruptions, as Middle Eastern countries halted crude oil production. As a result, many countries sought alternative sources, causing U.S. refinery margins to rise sharply, thereby boosting production and exports.
For small businesses dependent on petroleum products, these changes can have far-reaching implications. “The average daily price swing of $4 per barrel is unprecedented when compared to only $1 per barrel during the same period last year,” noted the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has heightened costs for commodities reliant on crude oil, which could affect pricing strategies for small business owners.
In 2Q26, U.S. refineries operated at unmatched capacity, processing the highest volumes of crude oil since 2019. These elevated processing levels were a direct response to strong demand for transportation fuels, with crack spreads—the refinery margins for products like gasoline—up significantly. The quarterly average gasoline crack spread rose by 60% from the previous year, while distillate and jet fuel crack spreads more than doubled.
The increase in refinery runs and margins presents both an opportunity and a challenge for small business owners. Higher refining capacity and better margins can lead to lower fuel prices at gas stations, which can boost consumer spending. Yet, if crude prices rise again due to geopolitical tensions, it could result in sudden price jumps for businesses relying heavily on fuel.
U.S. petroleum product exports reached record highs in the second quarter, largely due to the international supply crunch. Distillate exports averaged 1.56 million barrels per day (b/d), 30% higher than the five-year average, while jet fuel exports exceeded 350,000 b/d, more than double the five-year average. Businesses involved in transportation, logistics, or aviation sectors can benefit from these export trends, as suppliers seek reliable access to products they may have otherwise sourced from disrupted markets.
While opportunities abound, small business owners must remain vigilant about potential challenges. Fluctuating prices can complicate budgeting and forecasting, with inventory management becoming increasingly critical. The EIA’s prediction of a drop in global crude oil inventories, with U.S. commercial stocks hitting their lowest seasonal levels since 2014, should encourage businesses to reevaluate their supply chains and think strategically about procurement.
Moreover, as refiners shift their product yields—prioritizing outputs like jet fuel to meet international demand—small business owners should stay informed about changing market conditions. This flexibility among refiners benefits companies that derive revenue from aviation and freight industries, but it could also mean consumers experience a tighter market for certain fuel products.
The possibility of renewed military strikes and ongoing volatility in international relations poses additional challenges. “Following the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, we saw a slight decline in prices, but renewed uncertainty can quickly reverse those trends,” remarked industry analysts. Companies should be cautious and prepare contingency plans in case prices rebound or if supply disruptions occur again.
As the petroleum landscape evolves, the ripple effects will likely influence small business operations across sectors. The need for adaptive strategies and an acute awareness of market conditions will be essential. Small business owners must not only focus on immediate costs but also consider their long-term supply strategies in a landscape characterized by volatility, opportunity, and change.
For further details on these developments, read the full analysis from the EIA here.
