Crude oil prices maintained a steady course in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), with only a minor drop of 9 cents per barrel from the quarter’s onset. As small business owners navigate fluctuating energy costs, understanding these developments can help in budgeting and strategic planning.
Throughout 3Q25, Brent crude oil prices fluctuated modestly, starting at $70 per barrel in July before settling lower at $67 in August and $68 by September. Increased production from OPEC countries has played a significant role in stabilizing prices, offsetting geopolitical tensions like the Israel-Iran conflict and the ongoing strife in Ukraine. Such price consistency can be beneficial for businesses reliant on fuel, allowing for more accurate financial forecasting.
"Despite heightened geopolitical risks, the balance between supply increases and price stability may provide some respite for small businesses that are heavily impacted by energy costs," noted an industry analyst.
However, small business owners should remain vigilant. The global oil market is sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and trade concerns. Fluctuations in crude oil supply may create an oversupply scenario if consumption does not rise accordingly, which could lead to unpredictable pricing in the future.
Refinery margins, critical for gas station owners and logistics companies, have reached their highest levels in 2025, particularly for diesel. The crack spread—the difference between the cost of crude oil and the selling price of refined products—saw diesel margins peak at 85 cents per gallon in July, nearly doubling from the previous year. Following disruptions in Russia and increased international tensions, margins are expected to remain volatile.
Given this margin growth, diesel suppliers might face increased dairy operational costs, yet the higher margins may also signal opportunity for profitable sales. Small businesses that depend on diesel for logistics and transportation should keep an eye on these trends, as profit margins can vary significantly based on these costs.
Conversely, gasoline refinery margins were notably lower at the start of the quarter due to high inventories but rebounded, exceeding their five-year average for the first time since April. As the transition to winter-grade gasoline approaches, small business owners in transportation and retail sectors might benefit from these improved margins, while also planning for potential price adjustments as refineries switch production.
As we move deeper into Q4, the landscape remains influenced by geopolitical developments. The increased tensions between major oil-producing nations, particularly Russia and the ongoing situation in Ukraine, underscore the risks involved. U.S. tariffs on Russian oil imports have further complicated matters, heightening the potential for price increases.
While fuel prices may seem manageable now, small business owners should plan for potential volatility in the coming months. Consideration of hedging strategies or alternative fuel options might provide a buffer against unexpected swings.
In summary, the stable yet cautious climate of the crude oil market offers both challenges and opportunities for small businesses. The ability to adapt to ongoing geopolitical changes and market fluctuations will be crucial in navigating the complex landscape ahead. For more detailed insights, you can read the original report at the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s website here.
Image Via BizSugar
