In the midst of fluctuating energy markets, small business owners in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region have an opportunity to leverage a favorable economic landscape for coal generation. The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals a significant trend: coal’s profitability is on the rise, outpacing natural gas, particularly during the earlier months of 2026.
The dark spread, which measures the difference between the fuel costs for coal-fired generation and wholesale electricity prices, has dramatically increased. During the recent Winter Storm Fern in January, the difference between the dark spread for coal and the spark spread—its natural gas counterpart—hit an impressive $530 per megawatt-hour (MWh). This surge offers insights into potential operational and financial strategies that small businesses can consider as they navigate their energy options.
From late 2024, coal’s financial advantage became increasingly clear, with the dark spread consistently larger than the spark spread. In fact, the average dark spread rose a staggering 111% in 2025 compared to 2024, signaling that electricity prices are climbing faster than coal generation costs. This shift reflects a 44% increase in average electricity prices in MISO, while coal prices saw just a minimal rise of 3% over the same period.
For small businesses, energy costs represent a significant portion of operational expenses. As coal becomes more economically attractive, organizations still considering traditional energy sources may find themselves reassessing their energy procurement strategies. The ability to lock in lower energy costs via coal generation could result in sizeable savings, especially in an environment where natural gas prices increased by 63% from 2024 to 2025. With the spark spread only increasing by $2, from $12/MWh to $14/MWh, it’s clear that coal may offer a more stable financial pathway.
However, the dynamics during Winter Storm Fern highlight challenges that small business owners must be aware of. While coal prices remained steady, fluctuating natural gas prices demonstrated their volatility, often tied to immediate demand spikes. During the storm, natural gas prices soared from $25/MWh on January 20 to $549/MWh by January 27, despite a decrease in electricity demand of 11%. This situation illustrates the potential for sudden increases in energy costs when relying predominantly on natural gas.
Moreover, the logistics involved with coal procurement could impact business operations. Since coal typically requires longer delivery times—often about a month—compared to the near-instant availability of natural gas, small businesses may need to account for this lead time when planning their energy use. This fact introduces an element of risk, requiring careful coordination of energy purchases to avoid supply chain interruptions.
During the first quarter of 2026, dark spreads averaged $28/MWh, marking a 39% increase over the previous year. In contrast, the spark spreads averaged only $9/MWh, a mere 15% rise. The data suggests that small businesses should consider diversifying their energy portfolios, balancing between coal and natural gas to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
As small business owners weigh their options in energy sourcing, the ongoing trend of increased coal profitability might provide a significant advantage. With strategic planning and an understanding of market dynamics, they can position themselves to benefit from favorable rates while maintaining operational efficiency.
The implications of these developments in MISO should not be overlooked. As businesses strive for better margins and sustainability, the transition in energy economics underscores the need for adaptability and foresight. The EIA’s report offers a wealth of information—small business owners can delve into further details through the original analysis here.
In a time of uncertainty, informed energy decisions can be pivotal for small businesses aiming to thrive in today’s competitive landscape.
